Canadian Dollar Could Sink as Low as 68 Cents

Canadian Dollar Could Sink as Low as 68 CentsWhere the price of oil goes, so goes Canada’s dollar. No other major currency is as closely tied to the value of its key commodity export as the loonie is to crude right now. The correlation between the Canadian dollar and the benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil price is about 0.56, meaning the two have a strong positive relationship. That’s the closest association among 16 of the world’s most-traded currencies…

Read More >>

5 reasons it’s Still Too Early to Buy Commodities Stocks

5 reasons it's Still Too Early to Buy Commodities StocksMany contrarian investors are wondering if the time is right to start loading up on commodities in anticipation of the next big rally. Certainly, stocks in the sector are cheap, and we would expect many of them to double if and when a commodity recovery occurs. Stocks of smaller, riskier companies could triple or more. Alas, we need to throw some cold water on such thoughts. It is still far…

Read More >>

Why the Republican Victory is Good For Markets

Why the Republican Victory is Good For MarketsThe Republicans have taken control of the U.S. legislative agenda for the next two years if not longer, and that has political and market implications up until 2016 and likely beyond. Let’s see how they handle this role, given the divisiveness within the party itself and the fact that it did not really run on a theme (like Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” back in 1994). It was a true referendum…

Read More >>

Canadian Dollar Under Pressure Over Rates and Economy

Canadian Dollar Under Pressure Over Rates and EconomyThe Canadian dollar has had a sharp slide since the beginning of 2014 and most predictions are that it will go lower. RBC economists say 87 cents by this fall, perhaps 85 cents next year, while TD Bank says 85 cents before the end of the year, then a rebound to 90 cents in 2015. On Friday the loonie closed up 0.26 of a cent at 89.21 cents US, having…

Read More >>

Loonie Closes at 12-month Low

Loonie Closes at 12-month LowThe Canadian dollar closed below 96 cents US at a 12-month low Friday, as traders moved into more widely traded U.S. dollar denominated securities. The loonie’s official Bank of Canada close was 95.40 cents US, down 1.07 cents. It hasn’t been that low since Sept. 8, 2010. It has lost 1.74 cents this week. Markets are concerned that a slowing global economy will hurt exporting countries such as Canada. The…

Read More >>

Will the loonie lead crude this time?

Will the loonie lead crude this time?Historically, the CAD/USD exchange rate has tracked crude prices reasonably well. Using weekly data going back to 1983, the two series have a 67% correlation. In recent weeks, however, the Canadian has broken out and is powering towards parity with its American counterpart. In contrast, crude oil prices have languished in the $80 range. Will the Canadian dollar take a break from its recent hot streak, or is a rally…

Read More >>