Why Even a Crystal Ball is No Guarantee

crystal ball investingA great deal of investment analysts’ time is spent trying to predict the future. How will the new iPhone sell? How many new automobiles will be sold in Europe next year?  What will next week’s employment numbers look like? Who will win the next election? And what will the Fed do about interest rates in the coming quarters?

These questions are important to these analysts not because of the answers themselves, but because those answers are central to the prediction of the direction of markets generally and asset prices specifically.  Read More…

Replies to this Post

  1. Maneet Alkema

    And hence why researching everything is the most important tool you can have as an investor.

  2. Jeramie B.

    The article was an interesting read surprisingly.

  3. Vayle

    Fun fact: I didn’t know that the US congress people are legally allowed to get insider trader information and invest using that information. Crazy. Saw it on 60-minutes. No need for a crystal ball, just do as your congressmen does. 🙂

    Now if we can just get our archaic senate to be just as corrupt.

  4. Rowan P.

    Anyone watch the terrific The Big Short. It brought up how S&P rating isn’t necessarily working in a non-partisan way.

  5. Hudson W

    I’ve been telling others about holding gold doesn’t not weather the storm during market turmoil and just glad this piece mentioned that about the 2008 financial crisis.

  6. Dave

    I’m still a bit confused why so many were predicted doom for a US election win by Trump. Aren’t all the markets up?

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